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Ohio State Buckeyes play at Nebraska Cornhuskers in college football on Saturday, November 21, at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE). As of 9:05 AM ET, Ohio State are the moneyline favorite at -198 and the total is 47.5. The Desk leans Ohio State ML. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · college football betting splits
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a market on this game that we can match, so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
| Market | Ohio State Buckeyes | Nebraska Cornhuskers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -198Bet at DraftKings → | +164Bet at DraftKings → |
Ohio State Buckeyes4th in the Big Ten ConferenceNebraska Cornhuskers14th in the Big Ten Conference
Anthony Colandrea (NEB)193/306, 2,109 YDS, 16 TD, 7 INT (9 GP)
Julian Sayin (OSU)131/192, 2,007 YDS, 19 TD, 4 INT (7 GP)Ohio State's championship price fell from 9.1 percent to 1.3 percent implied probability in eight days. The market still asks you to lay -198 to back them in Lincoln. That tension is the whole story. The Ohio State Buckeyes visit the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium in Week 12, and Ohio State vs Nebraska comes down to one question: is the favorite's price too rich?
As of November 11, Ohio State is 6-3, 4th of 18 in the Big Ten and No. 21 in the week 11 AP poll. Nebraska is 5-4 and 14th of 18. Elo, a rating that moves after every result, has Ohio State at 1967 and Nebraska at 1715. That is a wide gap. PPA, short for predicted points added per play, measures what a typical snap is worth in points.
Higher is better on offense, lower is better on defense. Over nine games, Ohio State sits at 0.23 on offense and -0.05 on defense. Nebraska is at 0.2 and 0. The offenses look close. The Ohio State defense has been taking value away, while Nebraska's has been neutral. Last year's final SP+ (another efficiency rating) had Ohio State at 30.1 and Nebraska at 6.2, but that is a 2025 starting point, not this season's form.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has 2,007 yards, 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions over seven games, completing 131 of 192. Per game, that is 286.7 yards, 2.7 touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions. Nebraska's Anthony Colandrea has 2,109 yards, 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions over nine games, completing 193 of 306, or 234.3 yards, 1.8 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game. On a per-game basis, Sayin has produced more. Sayin has appeared in seven of Ohio State's nine games. Colandrea has played all nine of Nebraska's.
Ohio State is the favorite. Here are the Ohio State vs Nebraska odds at the best prices we found. The moneyline is a bet on who wins, nothing more. Ohio State is -198 at DraftKings. A minus price means you risk more than you profit. A $100 bet profits $50.51 if Ohio State wins and loses $100 if it does not. Break-even, the win rate you need just to stay level over time, is 66.4%. Nebraska is the underdog at +164, also best at DraftKings.
A plus price means you profit more than you risk. $100 profits $164.00 on a win and loses $100 on a loss, with a break-even of 37.9%. Shopping across books matters, because a worse price on the same bet raises the bar you must clear. As for the Ohio State vs Nebraska spread (a bet on the margin of victory), no spread price was available at the books we track. A total of 47.5 points is posted for betting on combined scoring, but with no Over or Under price listed, we will not grade it.
Books charge a fee called the vig by pricing both sides to add up to more than 100 percent. That is the market's view with the fee removed, not a certainty. Now the catch. Ohio State at -198 needs 66.4%, above the market's 63.7%. Nebraska at +164 needs 37.9%, above the market's 36.3%.
Expected value is your average profit or loss per bet over many tries. At the market's own vig-free numbers, neither side shows a positive average. So our lean is a matchup opinion. We need Ohio State to win more than 66.4% of the time. The Elo gap and the defensive PPA edge push us there, but the margin is thin.
We lean the Ohio State Buckeyes moneyline at -198 at DraftKings, the best price we tracked. Anything steeper raises the 66.4% bar. This is the Desk's matchup read, not an official play, and it deserves a small stake because the market's own numbers give us no cushion.
Ohio State's defense is the difference. Nebraska can move the ball, but a defense grading out neutral will have its hands full with Sayin. We see Ohio State 27, Nebraska 17. That adds up to 44 points, under the 47.5 total, though with no Over or Under price posted we are not betting that number. That is the read on Nebraska vs Ohio State; the Desk's documented free play for today sits right below if you want the next step.
Ohio State is the market favorite at -198 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Nebraska at +164. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Ohio State is the favorite at -198 at DraftKings, and Nebraska is the underdog at +164, also best at DraftKings. With the bookmaker fee removed, the market implies about 63.7% for Ohio State and 36.3% for Nebraska.
Kickoff is listed for Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 12:00 AM Eastern time at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. It is a Week 12 game of the 2026 college football regular season.
No point spread price was available at the regulated US sportsbooks we track for this game. The moneyline has Ohio State at -198 and Nebraska at +164, and a total of 47.5 points is posted without Over or Under prices.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 47.5. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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