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Bear Bachmeier (BYU)100/152, 1,257 YDS, 9 TD, 2 INT (6 GP)
Cutter Boley (ASU)104/168, 1,353 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT (6 GP)BYU is unbeaten. Arizona State is dead even. That is the lazy read. The sharper one sits in the passing lines: through six games each, Arizona State's Cutter Boley is averaging 2.2 touchdown passes per game to Bear Bachmeier's 1.5, and Boley is also averaging 0.8 interceptions per game to Bachmeier's 0.3. One quarterback is making more plays. The other is handing the ball back far less often. On October 31 in Provo, that trade decides a lot.
This is Week 9 of the 2026 regular season. Kickoff is Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium. As of this writing on October 20, the BYU Cougars are 6-0 and sit 1st of 16 in the Big 12 Conference. The Arizona State Sun Devils are 3-3. Those are publication-date records, not final records at kickoff, so expect both to move before the teams take the field.
Our brief includes no season series history between these programs, so we are judging Arizona State vs BYU on current form, quarterback profile and venue rather than on past meetings. The short version of BYU vs Arizona State: the home team has not lost yet and leads its conference, while the visitor has won exactly as often as it has lost.
Bear Bachmeier has played all six of BYU's games. He is 100 of 152 for 1,257 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, which works out to 16.7 completions on 25.3 attempts for 209.5 yards per game. That is a 65.8 percent completion rate and 8.3 yards per attempt. Cutter Boley has also played all six of Arizona State's games.
He is 104 of 168 for 1,353 yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, or 17.3 of 28 for 225.5 yards per game. That is 61.9 percent completing and 8.1 yards per attempt. Same sample size, six games each, so the per-game numbers line up cleanly. Boley is the bigger per-game producer. Bachmeier is the more accurate and far more careful one. Turnovers swing scoreboards faster than yards do.
No odds are posted for this game yet, so we will not quote prices we do not have. Here is what to watch for when the board opens. The spread is a handicap: one team gives up points, the other gets them, and your ticket settles against that adjusted score. The total is the combined points both teams score, and you bet over or under it. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins, with no points involved at all.
Those are three different bets that can settle three different ways in the same game. Every book charges a built-in fee, often called the vig, which is why you risk more than you win on a standard price. When the number does post, check multiple books. A half point of spread or a few cents of price is the difference between a long-term winner and a long-term loser, and getting the best available number is the one edge nobody can take away from you.
Expected value is what a bet returns on average per $100 risked if you could replay it many times. We cannot calculate it here because there is no posted price to calculate against, and inventing one would be worse than useless. So this is a matchup lean, not a priced play. We like BYU. The Cougars are 6-0, they lead their conference, they are home, and their quarterback is giving the ball away at roughly a third the per-game rate of his counterpart. Our caution is obvious: an unbeaten home favorite is exactly the profile the market overprices. If the number opens fat, the lean dies on the price.
The Desk leans BYU on the side at LaVell Edwards Stadium, with the number and the book to be determined when the market opens. Take the best price you can find across books, and if the spread climbs past what the matchup justifies, pass. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis and educational work, not a documented official play.
We project BYU 27, Arizona State 20. The Sun Devils move the ball and score, because Boley's per-game production is real, but the interception gap tilts a close game to the home side in the fourth quarter. Keep an eye on the total when it posts rather than forcing a number now. That is the read on this matchup, and the Desk's documented free play for the day sits right below.
BYU is 6-0 and plays the cleaner quarterback game, and the Desk leans to the Cougars at home once the number posts.
BYU is 6-0 and plays the cleaner quarterback game, and the Desk leans to the Cougars at home once the number posts. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.