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These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
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Trey McKenney (MICH)19.5 PPG (2 GP)
Brian Carter Jr. (W&M)14.0 PPG (2 GP)Our rating makes Michigan a 90% favorite. The sportsbooks have not posted a number yet, and for a bettor that gap matters most in this game. The William & Mary Tribe visit the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Center on Sunday, November 15, with tip-off at 2:00 PM ET on B1G+. When the William & Mary vs Michigan odds appear, the first job is not picking a side. The first job is working out what the price should be, then finding the book that beats it.
Both teams are 2-1 as of November 12. That is three games into the season, far too few games to read form. The per-game averages over those three games hint at the shape of this Michigan vs William & Mary game, but treat them as a tiny sample. William & Mary shoots 50.67% from the field and scores 44 points in the paint per game.
Michigan holds opponents to 36.33% shooting and 23.33 paint points per game, with 4.67 blocks per game. Something has to give inside. The schedule tells us more. Both teams get three days of rest. Michigan is in game two of a home stand and did not travel. William & Mary is in game two of a road trip after a 1,119-mile trip from Boca Raton, with no time-zone change.
Trey McKenney leads Michigan at 19.5 points per game over two games, a small sample. He played 36 minutes last game. Elliot Cadeau (34) and J.P. Estrella (31) also logged heavy minutes. Brian Carter Jr. leads William & Mary at 14.0 points per game over two games, also a small sample. He played 25 minutes last game and 47 over the past seven days. Josh Baldwin led the Tribe with 30 minutes last time out. William & Mary has played two games in the last seven days. Michigan has played one.
No moneyline, spread or total is posted as of November 12, so we will not invent one. Here is how to read each line when it appears. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. The spread is a handicap: the favorite must win by more than the posted number, and the underdog can lose by less and still cash. Searchers asking about the William & Mary vs Michigan spread will see it here first.
The total is a bet on combined points, over or under. Every price carries vig, the book's built-in fee. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives Michigan 90% and William & Mary 10%. That is context, not a betting line. Michigan is 1-2 against the spread (meaning versus the posted handicap) in three graded games, 1-2 against the spread at home, and 1-2 on over-unders in three games. Three games is noise.
Once both sides are priced, we strip out the vig. Convert each price to an implied probability, add them, and divide each side by that sum. The result is the no-vig number: the market-implied probability with the fee removed. Then we compare it with the best price on the board.
Expected value is what a bet averages per $100 risked over many repeats. We cannot quote an expected value today because there is no price to run. Our read: the spot favors Michigan. A home team that stayed put meets a road team in game two of a trip after 1,119 miles. Whether that becomes a bet depends entirely on the number.
We like the Michigan Wolverines to win. There is no price or book to quote yet. Our rule: play it only at the best moneyline across books, and only if that price's break-even percent sits at or below the market's no-vig percent. If every book is too steep, we pass. A spread bet is a separate decision with its own break-even, and we will not lean one blind.
Michigan 80, William & Mary 67, a combined 147 points. Both teams have averaged about 71 possessions per game over their last 10 stored games, so expect a normal pace. William & Mary should find some looks inside. Michigan's home floor and fresher legs should win the long stretches in the second half. That is the read on this matchup; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
With no line posted yet, we lean Michigan to win at Crisler Center, but only at the best moneyline across books and only if that price clears the market's no-vig math.
William & Mary vs Michigan streams on B1G+. The game tips off Sunday, November 15, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET from Crisler Center, Michigan's indoor home arena. B1G+ is the only broadcast listing we have for this game.
The William & Mary Tribe and Michigan Wolverines tip off at 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 15, 2026. The game is at Crisler Center and streams on B1G+.
Sportsbooks had not posted odds as of November 12, 2026. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives Michigan a 90% chance to win and William & Mary 10%. That rating is context only, not a betting line.
With no line posted yet, we lean Michigan to win at Crisler Center, but only at the best moneyline across books and only if that price clears the market's no-vig math. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.