Old Dominion vs Virginia Prediction & Odds (Nov 17)

Old Dominion vs Virginia: The Rating and the Cover Record Disagree

Our rating gives the Virginia Cavaliers an 85% chance to win this game. The Old Dominion Monarchs have covered the spread in all three of their graded games this season. Covering means beating the betting market's expected margin, so Old Dominion has outplayed expectations every time we could measure it. That tension drives Old Dominion vs Virginia, Tuesday, November 17 at 9:00 PM ET on ACC Network. One warning first: it is very early, and small samples lie.

The Matchup

As of November 13, both teams are 4-0. Four games into the season, that is not form, so we will not treat it like form. No head-to-head data was given for this one. The per-game averages over four stored games sketch each team's style. Virginia averages 22.75 assists, 13.25 steals and 43.5 points in the paint per game.

Old Dominion averages 14.75 assists, 8.75 steals and 35.5 paint points per game, and its opponents are shooting 35.75% per game. Read all of that as a sketch, not a verdict. Schedule matters more here. Virginia gets 3 days of rest after a 106-mile trip from its last game in College Park. Old Dominion gets 2 days of rest and travels 145 miles. Neither team is on a back-to-back, and neither changes time zones.

Players to Watch

Thijs De Ridder leads Virginia at 17.8 points per game over four games. Over his last five games he is at 18.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, in 25.6 minutes per game. Zacch Wiggins leads Old Dominion at 14.0 points per game over four games, playing 29.4 minutes per game. In each team's last game, Old Dominion leaned on Adante' Holiman (34 minutes) and Wiggins (33). Virginia spread it out, with Chance Mallory, Johann Grunloh and De Ridder at 21 minutes each. That is one game, so it is a snapshot, not a habit.

Who Is Favored to Win Old Dominion vs Virginia?

No odds were posted as of November 13. Here is what to look for when they are. The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright; a minus price marks the favorite, a plus price the underdog. The spread is the margin a team must win or lose by for the bet to cash. The total (over-under) is a bet on combined points. For context, our rating sits at Virginia 85%, Old Dominion 15%, and a Nov 12 headline called this team No.

6 Virginia. The betting records cut the other way. Old Dominion is 3-0 against the spread (3 graded games) and 1-2 on over-unders (3 games). Virginia is 1-3 against the spread (4 graded games), 1-3 at home and 1-3 as the favorite, with the over hitting 4-0 (4 games). Pace over the last 10 stored games: Old Dominion 69.3 possessions and 116.9 points per 100 possessions, Virginia 67.6 and 123.7.

Where the Value Is

Every price carries vig, the book's built-in fee. Strip it out and you get the market's no-vig implied probability. Compare that to what you believe, and you get expected value, the average dollars you would win or lose per $100 risked over many bets. With no prices posted, we cannot put a dollar figure on this yet, and we will not invent one.

What we can say: our case for Virginia rests on the home floor and the extra day of rest, not on four games of results. And Virginia's 1-3 record as a favorite over four graded games is a reason to treat any spread separately from the moneyline, judged on its own break-even when it posts.

The Pick

Our matchup lean is the Virginia Cavaliers on the moneyline. There is no price yet, so there is no book to name. When lines appear, check every sportsbook and take the best number available. A favorite's price that is even a little cheaper changes the math.

The Prediction

We expect Virginia vs Old Dominion to tighten early and then tilt toward the rested home team in the second half. Our projected score: Virginia 80, Old Dominion 69. That is the read on this matchup until the number arrives; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.