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DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: Merrimack Warriors (71% of DraftKings tickets, 100% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsMerrimack Warriors -3.5App State Mountaineers +3.5 | MoneyMerrimack Warriors -3.5App State Mountaineers +3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) |
| Book | BetsMerrimack Warriors (-162)App State Mountaineers (+136) | MoneyMerrimack Warriors (-162)App State Mountaineers (+136) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 133.5Under 133.5 | MoneyOver 133.5Under 133.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings and Circa. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Merrimack Warriors | App State Mountaineers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 | +3.5 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before kickoff .
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. Polymarket US does not publish trades, so it shows prices only and no buyer split is drawn. It is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | +3.5 | +3 | n/a |
| Total | 135.5 | 134 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | -162 / +137 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| Market | Merrimack Warriors | App State Mountaineers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -163Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +150Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | -3.5 -103Pregame price at Courtside → | +3.5 -104Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 134.5 | O -108Pregame price at Courtside → | U -108Pregame price at Courtside → |
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
When 12 sportsbooks opened this game, their point spreads ran from -3 at Caesars to +3.5 at DraftKings. That is a 6.5 point gap. When the books disagree that much, shopping for the best number matters more than usual. The Merrimack Warriors and the App State Mountaineers meet Monday, November 2, at 6:00 AM ET at Rock Hill Sports & Event Center, streaming on YouTube. It is an early tip on a neutral floor, and the market has a clear favorite.
Merrimack is the favorite. Both teams are 0-0. Neither has played this season, so there are no streaks, no standings and no season series to lean on. Neither team is at home, because Rock Hill is a neutral site. Merrimack traveled 475 miles from its last game in Atlantic City with no time-zone change. App State traveled 476 miles from Pensacola and crossed one time zone east.
Our rating (an Elo model built on stored past results, context only) gives Merrimack 59% and App State 41%, close to the market's read. Over their last 10 stored games, both teams played slow. Merrimack averaged 63 possessions per game (a possession is one trip down the floor) and App State averaged 63.4. App State scored more efficiently, 112.8 points per 100 possessions to Merrimack's 110.2.
Kevair Kennedy headlines our player data. He scored 19.2 points per game over his last five games (20.8 over his last 10) while playing 38 minutes a night. Tye Dorset added 13.2 points per game over his last five games (13.1 over 10) in 34.6 minutes. Todd Brogna posted 8 points and 4.4 rebounds per game over his last five games. KC Ugwuakazi grabbed 5.8 rebounds per game over his last five games in 20.8 minutes. Andrés Marrero logged 31 minutes with 4.8 points per game over his last five games. These are past games.
Start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins outright. Remove the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads it about 61.2% Merrimack, 38.8% App State. Next is the spread, a handicap on the margin. Merrimack -3.5 at -103 (Courtside) must win by 4 or more, and a 3-point win loses. The half point means no push (a tie that refunds your bet).
The consensus spread opened App State +3.5 and has not moved. Last is the total, the combined points of both teams. It sits at 134.5, with the Over and the Under both -108 at Courtside. Along the way, some books moved the total down, from 136.5 to 135.5 at four books and from 135.5 to 134.5 at three. That is a line move, nothing more.
Expected value is your average result per bet if you could make it many times. Break-even is the win rate a price needs just to avoid losing money. Straight talk: nothing on this board is positive. App State's moneyline needs 40% against 38.8%, minus $2.91. Merrimack -3.5 is minus $2.58, and either side of the total is minus $3.70.
That is not an edge. It is a matchup lean. Both teams play slow, App State was the more efficient scorer over the last 10 stored games, and 3.5 points is a real cushion when possessions are scarce. If a book posts +4 at a similar price, take it. A bigger number is always better for the underdog.
A $100 bet profits $96.15 if App State wins or loses by 3 or fewer.
App State vs Merrimack should be a grind at around 63 possessions. We see Merrimack winning a close one, 68-66. That adds to 134 points, just under the 134.5 total, though at minus $3.70 we are not betting the total. A two-point Merrimack win keeps App State inside the number, and our ticket cashes. That is the Desk's read on this number. On days like this the Desk also posts a documented free play, and it sits right below.
Merrimack is the market favorite at -163 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with App State at +150. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The game tips off Monday, November 2, 2026, at 6:00 AM Eastern time at Rock Hill Sports & Event Center in Rock Hill, South Carolina. It streams on YouTube.
Merrimack Warriors vs App State Mountaineers College Basketball prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 134.5, with the over priced at -108 at Courtside and the under at -108 at Courtside. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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