Green Bay vs St. Thomas Prediction & Odds (Nov 8)

Green Bay vs St. Thomas Prediction: A Total on the Move

The total on Green Bay vs St. Thomas opened at 151.5 and has been pushed down to 149.5 after five moves. The official assigned to this game, Mark Riggs, has averaged 153.9 combined points in our stored sample of 17 games. That gap is the story. The total is the combined points both teams score, and you bet whether the final lands over or under it.

The Green Bay Phoenix visit the St. Thomas Tommies on Sunday at 2:00 PM ET. St. Thomas is a clear favorite, but the books disagreed on the scoring number from the start. At the open, 12 books posted the total anywhere from 148.5 (FanDuel) to 151.5 (Fanatics), a 3 point gap.

The Matchup: St. Thomas vs Green Bay at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena

Both teams are 1-1. That means we know almost nothing yet. Two games into the season is far too early to call anyone's form. St. Thomas won the last meeting, 360 days ago. The schedule is clearer. Green Bay has had 2 days of rest, but this is game 2 of a road trip. The Phoenix traveled 595 miles from Cincinnati and crossed one time zone heading west. St. Thomas had 1 day of rest and traveled just 9 miles from Minneapolis.

Neither team is on a back-to-back (games on consecutive days). Over the last 10 stored games, Green Bay played at 63.9 possessions per game (a possession is one trip down the floor) and scored 117.6 points per 100 possessions. St. Thomas played at 67.1 possessions and scored 115.5 per 100. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results and used only as context, gives St. Thomas a 75% chance to win. That matches the market.

Players to Watch

For St. Thomas, start with Jeremy Lorenz. His leader figure in our data is 14.5 as a season total, or 7.3 per game over two games. That is a small sample. He played 29 minutes last game and 59 over the last seven days. Tim Franks (29 minutes last game) and Austin Herro (26) carry the next heaviest loads. Green Bay's leader is Orlando Lovejoy at 11.0 as a season total, or 5.5 per game over two games. That is also a small sample. He played 29 minutes last game, behind Marcus Hall's 35. Hall has 51 minutes over seven days and Lovejoy has 45.

Green Bay vs St. Thomas Odds: Who Is Favored to Win?

The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. St. Green Bay is the underdog at +282 (best at Courtside), so a $100 bet profits $282.00. The vig is the house's built-in cut. Remove it, and the market reads St. Thomas at about 74.9% and Green Bay at 25.1%. The green bay vs st thomas spread is 7.5 points. A spread is a handicap. Green Bay +7.5 at -108 (Courtside) wins if Green Bay wins outright or loses by 7 or fewer. A $100 bet profits $92.59, and the break-even (the win rate you need just to stay level over time) is 51.9%.

St. The half point means no push (a tie that refunds your stake). The spread opened at St. Thomas -7 and sits at -7.5 after four moves. The Under at -103 (Courtside) profits $97.09, with a 50.7% break-even. On Kalshi, 72% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Green Bay (57 trades, $660 traded). On ProphetX, 77% of the money traded on the spread is on Green Bay (21 trades, $911 traded). Trading is light, so those shares can swing. Exchange traders also moved toward the Over. Each of these best prices sits at a different book, which is why shopping matters.

Where the Value Is

Expected value is what a bet returns on average if you could make it many times. The Over at +108 is our spot. The market's no-vig read puts the Over at 50.3%, above its 48.1% break-even. That is an average, not your payout. A winning ticket pays $108. St. The St. Thomas moneyline is thin at plus $0.52. Green Bay's moneyline is minus $4.03, Green Bay +7.5 is minus $3.70, and the Under is minus $2.14. The context leans the same way. Riggs' 17-game sample shows 7 overs and 4 unders in 11 graded games. The total has also dropped two points since the open.

The Pick

Over 149.5 at +108, at Polymarket. The price is the reason this works. A lower price raises your break-even and eats the edge, so shop before you click.

The Prediction

We see St. Thomas 80, Green Bay 72. That adds up to 152, which is over the 149.5 total by 2.5 points. St. Thomas has the home floor, the shorter trip and both teams' recent pace numbers behind a game in the low 150s. That is our read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.