Senators vs Devils Prediction & Odds (Oct 12)

Six Points, Three Points, One Big Gap

Tim Stutzle has six points through Ottawa's first four games. Luke Evangelista leads the New Jersey Devils with three. That is the cleanest tension in this spot: one team's best player is already carrying a line, the other team's leader is still working toward it. Add a 3-1-0 Ottawa start against a 1-2-0 New Jersey start and a Monday night at Prudential Center, and you have a Senators vs Devils opener to the season series that matters more than the calendar suggests.

The Matchup

As of publication, the Ottawa Senators sit at 3-1-0 and the New Jersey Devils at 1-2-0. In the NHL standings, that first number is wins, the second is regulation losses, and the third is overtime or shootout losses (those still bank a point). Ottawa is listed 1st of 8 in the Atlantic Division. New Jersey is listed 7th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division.

The season series starts here on Monday, October 12, at 7:00 PM ET, so there is no head-to-head history from this season to lean on. Puck drop is at Prudential Center, which gives New Jersey last change, meaning the home coach picks matchups after the road team's line is on the ice. That is a real, if small, edge for the Devils vs Senators side of this.

Players to Watch

Stutzle's six points means goals plus assists combined. He is the engine, and when a team's top center is producing at that rate this early, it usually shows up in both scoring chances and power play looks. Evangelista's three points is the Devils' team high, which tells you New Jersey's offense has been spread thin rather than driven by one line. One team has a clear focal point. The other is still hunting for one.

The Numbers

Odds are not posted for this game yet, so we will not quote a price we cannot see. Here is what to read when the board opens. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins, including overtime and shootout. The puck line is hockey's spread, almost always set at 1.5 goals, so the favorite must win by two or more and the underdog can lose by exactly one and still cash.

The total is the combined goals by both teams, and you bet over or under it. A price written as minus means you risk that amount to win $100 (at -110 you risk $110 to win $100, which needs about a 52.4 percent win rate just to break even). A plus price means $100 risked returns that amount in profit. When the number does post, compare the same bet at every book you hold. A half-goal or a few cents of price is the entire margin in hockey.

Where the Value Is

Our method, once prices exist: take the two sides of the moneyline, strip out the vig (the book's built-in margin), and you get the market-implied probability with the vig removed. If the best available price pays more than that implied probability says it should, the bet carries positive expected value, meaning the average result per $100 risked is a profit rather than a loss.

Without a posted line we will not pretend to run that math. We will say the lean: Ottawa. A 3-1-0 team with a producing top line against a 1-2-0 team without one is the side we want, and we would rather take a shorter price on the Senators moneyline than reach for the 1.5-goal puck line, which is a different bet with its own break-even.

Injuries

Six names are listed. New Jersey has three: Jonas Siegenthaler day-to-day, Connor Brown out, and Seamus Casey on injured reserve. Ottawa has three: William Eklund day-to-day, Cameron Crotty out, and Jake Sanderson out. Sanderson is the heaviest absence on either sheet, a top-pair defenseman gone from a team that is otherwise rolling. Siegenthaler's status should firm up on Monday morning before the 7:00 PM ET puck drop.

The Pick

Senators moneyline, once it is posted. No price quoted, because none exists yet. When it opens, take the longest number available across your books, and if Ottawa opens near even money, that is the one we want.

The Prediction

Ottawa 3, New Jersey 2. We expect Stutzle's line to generate the cleanest looks on the ice and the Devils to need secondary scoring they have not shown through three games. Sanderson's absence keeps this close rather than comfortable. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.