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As of Sep 29, 10:19 PM ET, moneyline tickets split 10% Kings, 90% Avalanche, and the money splits 3% Kings, 97% Avalanche (licensed market-data feed, the same numbers as our betting splits board).
| Market | Los Angeles Kings | Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +170Bet at Novig → | -176Bet at ProphetX → |
| Spread | +1.5 -153Bet at Novig → | -1.5 +144Bet at Novig → |
| Total 6.5 | O +115Bet at theScore Bet → | U -117Bet at Novig → |
Novig is posting the Los Angeles Kings at +170 for Wednesday night in Denver. Strip the sportsbook's built-in fee out of the two prices and the market itself gives Los Angeles about a 37.4% chance to win. A +170 ticket needs 37% to break even. That is a thin sliver, but it points the right way, and it is sitting on the board before the first puck drop of this Avalanche vs Kings series at Ball Arena.
Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 10:00 PM ET. As of publication on Tuesday the 29th, both clubs sit at 0-0-0. That is not a record built against anybody. It is a blank sheet. This is also the first meeting of the season series, which starts on the 30th, so there is no head-to-head history from this year to lean on.
What we do have is a price. A moneyline is simply a bet on who wins the game outright, with no goal margin attached. Colorado is the favorite at -176, Los Angeles the underdog at +170. With the fee removed, that shape is roughly 62.6% Colorado to 37.4% Los Angeles.
With no games played, the lineup card is the information. Colorado has three names on Injured Reserve: Zachary L'Heureux, Logan O'Connor and Trent Miner. Injured Reserve means a player is formally shelved and unavailable, so that is three bodies the Avalanche are not dressing. Los Angeles has Otto Salin on Injured Reserve plus two day-to-day tags, Corey Perry and Joel Edmundson. Day-to-day means genuinely uncertain, nothing more. We are not putting a percentage on it, and we are not guessing. The honest move is to watch Wednesday's morning skate and warmups before you commit money.
Three markets, one game. Moneyline: Los Angeles +170 at Novig means a $100 bet profits $170.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 37%. Colorado -176 at ProphetX means a $100 bet profits $56.82 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 63.8%. Puck line: that is hockey's spread, and it is almost always 1.5 goals. Los Angeles +1.5 at -153 (Novig) cashes if the Kings win outright or lose by exactly one, and it loses on a two-goal defeat.
There is no tie at a half goal. Colorado -1.5 at +144 (Novig) needs the Avalanche to win by two or more. A one-goal Colorado win loses that ticket. Total 6.5: Over +115 at theScore Bet, Under -117 at Novig. That bet is on combined goals by both teams, nothing else. Those are the best prices across the regulated books we track, and shopping for them is the whole edge.
Run each price against the market's own no-vig read. Colorado -176 grades to minus $1.83 per $100 risked. Los Angeles +1.5 grades to minus $1.78 per $100 risked against its own 59.4% cover number. Colorado -1.5 is minus $0.94 per $100 risked. Over 6.5 is minus $1.53 per $100 risked. Two prices come out the other way.
Under 6.5 at -117 is plus $0.52 per $100 risked against a 54.2% no-vig read. And Los Angeles at +170 is plus $0.98 per $100 risked, with a fair price around +167. It also carries the lowest break-even percentage in this entire block at 37%. Expected value just means the average result if you could replay the bet forever. Under a dollar per $100 is small. It is still the correct direction.
Six names total across both benches: three on Colorado's sheet (L'Heureux, O'Connor, Miner, all Injured Reserve) and three on Los Angeles' (Salin on Injured Reserve, Perry and Edmundson day-to-day). The Avalanche absences are settled. The Kings carry the uncertainty, which is exactly why the late lineup on Wednesday matters more to the underdog side than to the favorite.
Los Angeles Kings moneyline, +170 at Novig. If that number drifts below about +167, the edge is gone and we pass. The Under 6.5 at -117 on Novig is the secondary positive-expectation number on this Kings vs Avalanche card.
We project Los Angeles Kings 3, Colorado Avalanche 2. That is five combined goals, which lands under the total of 6.5. A tight road win at Ball Arena is the outcome the +170 price is underpaying. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, right below.
Avalanche is the market favorite at -176 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Kings at +170. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The market says Colorado should win this, but Novig's +170 on Los Angeles pays more than the market's own math, and that is where our lean lives. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 6.5, with the over priced at +115 at theScore Bet and the under at -117 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.