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RebetFree-to-play social sportsbook with sweepstakes prizesClaim →Colorado Avalanche2nd in the Central DivisionDallas Stars6th in the Central DivisionNathan MacKinnon sits at 8 for Colorado. Mikko Rantanen sits at 6 for Dallas. Both teams have played four games, both are stacked with top-end talent, and yet one of them is already 3-1-0 while the other is 2-2-0 and buried in the bottom half of its own division. That is the real tension in Avalanche vs Stars: the names say coin flip, the early standings do not. The game goes Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET from American Airlines Center, and no odds are posted yet. That is an advantage if you know what to do with it.
As of this writing on October 9, the Colorado Avalanche are 3-1-0 and sit 2nd of 8 in the Central Division. The Dallas Stars are 2-2-0 and sit 6th of 8 in the same division. In the NHL a record reads wins, regulation losses, then overtime or shootout losses, and that third number still banks a point in the standings. The season series between these two starts right here on 10/13, so there is no head to head form from this year to lean on. Framed the other way, Stars vs Avalanche is a divisional opener where the home side is already chasing points inside its own group.
MacKinnon leads Colorado at 8 through four games. That is the kind of pace that drags a power play, a top line and a transition game along with it, and it is why opposing coaches spend the morning skate deciding who starts against him. Rantanen leads Dallas at 6. He is the Stars' driver and the matchup problem Colorado has to solve on home ice. Two games into any season series, the team that wins the leader-versus-leader shifts usually wins the night.
Nothing is posted yet, so here is what you will be reading when it is. The moneyline is the straight bet on who wins, including overtime and the shootout. The puck line is hockey's spread, almost always set at 1.5 goals, so the favorite must win by two or more and the underdog can lose by exactly one and still cash. The total is the combined goals by both teams, and you pick over or under.
Every price carries vig, the small built-in commission the book takes, which is why both sides of a market add up to more than 100 percent. Because no prices exist for this game, we cannot quote a best number or a break-even rate here. We can tell you the discipline: when it opens, check every book you have, because a half-goal of total or a few cents of moneyline is the whole edge in a divisional game.
Strip the vig out of a posted two-way market and you get the market-implied probability, not the truth, just the market's read with the commission removed. Expected value is simply the average dollar result per $100 risked if this game were replayed many times. When your own estimate of a team's chance is higher than the de-vigged percent, the ticket is worth taking.
Our read is that Colorado's 3-1-0 start and MacKinnon's production are more durable than Dallas sitting 6th of 8, and that the market will likely price this closer to even than it should. If Colorado opens as a modest favorite or anywhere near a pick'em, we see value on the Avalanche side.
Six names are listed across the two clubs. Dallas has Joel Kiviranta out, with Matt Duchene and Harrison Scott on injured reserve. Colorado has three on injured reserve: Logan O'Connor, Trent Miner and Georgii Merkulov. Miner is a goaltending absence, which matters for depth if the starter has a short night. Final designations will land on game day, Tuesday the 13th, before the 8:30 PM ET puck drop.
Desk lean: Colorado Avalanche moneyline. We cannot name a price or a book because the market has not opened. When it does, take the best number available to you and skip it if Colorado gets priced as a heavy favorite, because the edge we like is in the gap between the records and a near-even line.
Colorado 4, Dallas 3, seven goals total, with MacKinnon involved in at least one of them and the game decided late. Dallas is dangerous at home and Rantanen keeps them in it, which is exactly why we prefer the moneyline to laying 1.5 goals. That is the read on this number before it exists; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Colorado walks into American Airlines Center with the better start and the better engine, and the Desk leans Avalanche on the moneyline once prices post.
Colorado walks into American Airlines Center with the better start and the better engine, and the Desk leans Avalanche on the moneyline once prices post. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.
