How arbitrage works
When two books price the same market differently enough, the combined no-vig probabilities dip below 100 percent, creating an arb. You stake each outcome at the book offering the best price, in amounts sized so every result returns more than your total outlay. The profit is small, often 1 to 3 percent, and it only holds if both bets stand at those prices and both books settle the same way.
A worked example
Book A has Team X at +105 and Book B has Team Y at +105 in a two-way market. Staking both sides in the right proportion returns a profit whichever team wins. An arbitrage calculator takes the two prices and your total stake and outputs exactly how much to put on each side so the return is the same whichever side wins.
The catch
Arbs vanish fast as lines move, require accounts and balances at multiple books, and books limit or restrict bettors who arb aggressively. The margins are thin and the operational effort is high. For most bettors, hunting positive expected value and always taking the best number is a more durable edge than chasing fleeting arbs.
In the Wise Guy tools
Worst case
What you end up with if the less favorable side wins, after fees and rounding stakes to real dollars.
Example: Worst case +$1.20 on $100 = you are up at least $1.20 whichever side wins, if both bets are accepted.
How our tools use it: The smaller of the two results when the stakes are rounded to real dollars, net of exchange fees. It is the return you get whichever side wins, if both bets are accepted at these prices.
12% screening cap
A gap this big between regulated books is usually a posting error a book will cancel, so we never call it actionable.
How our tools use it: A cross above 12% between regulated books is treated as a posting error or a line the book stopped updating (books void obvious errors), so it is never listed as actionable. A screening rule, not proof; below the cap a quote is still not an accepted bet.
Void rules differ
Void rules differ: if one book voids its leg (for example the player sits) and the other settles, this arb can lose. Check both books' void rules.
How our tools use it: A voided leg can turn an arb into a loss. Books settle a voided bet by their own rules: a player prop voids if the player does not play or a pitcher does not start, a live bet can be cancelled on a suspension or a price change, and an exchange or prediction market settles a voided or postponed game by its own rules. One leg can void (stake refunded) while the other loses, so the arb can still lose money. Check both books' void rules before you bet.
Frequently asked questions
Is arbitrage betting legal?
Betting the same event at multiple regulated books is legal, but books may limit or close accounts of bettors who arbitrage regularly. It is against no law, only against the book's interest.
How much can you make arbitrage betting?
Individual arbs usually return 1 to 3 percent. The gains are small and require significant capital across books, and opportunities disappear quickly.
Your next step
- 1Learn itArbitrage (this page)
- 2Apply itHow to find value bets →
- 3Run itArbitrage Calculator →
- 4Master itDay 20: Sharp action, handle and line movement →
Related terms
- Hedging
- Hedging a bet means placing a second wager on the opposite outcome of a bet you already have, so you come out with a profit or a smaller loss whichever way it goes, at the prices you got.
- Vig (Juice)
- Vig, short for vigorish and also called juice, is the commission a sportsbook builds into its odds.
- Expected Value (+EV)
- Expected value, or EV, is the average amount a bet would win or lose if you placed it many times over.
- Middle
- A middle is a pair of bets on opposite sides of two different lines, such as Over 44.5 at one book and Under 47.5 at another.
- Betting Exchange
- A betting exchange is a marketplace where bettors take each other's offers instead of betting against a sportsbook.
- Line Shopping
- Line shopping means comparing the price of the same bet across several sportsbooks and exchanges, then placing it wherever it pays the most.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER. Regulated US books only.