Francisco Cerundolo vs Filip Misolic

The market read: Francisco Cerundolo is the favorite at -1430 (implied 93% to win), with Filip Misolic at +980 (9%) at the US Open. Best US price at publish; the full pick and reasoning are below.

New York Opens With A Lopsided Price

Francisco Cerundolo and Filip Misolic meet on hard court at the US Open on September 1, 2026. The betting market is not shy about this one. One player is priced like a near certainty. The other is priced like a longshot flier that still cashes sometimes. That gap is the whole story, and understanding it is more useful for a new bettor than any hot take.

The Matchup

Both of these men are known as heavy-topspin, baseline-first players who grew up grinding on slower surfaces. That means long rallies, deep court position and a willingness to run. Cerundolo is the one the market respects far more, and the odds imply he is expected to control the pattern of play, dictate with the forehand and force the errors rather than make them. Misolic profiles as the counterpuncher here, the player who has to extend points, absorb pace and hope the favorite gets loose. Best of five sets at a Grand Slam matters too. Longer matches usually favor the better and deeper player, because a hot hour is not enough to steal the result.

How They Are Priced

The moneyline is simply the bet on who wins the match. There is no point spread in tennis. Cerundolo is -1430, best price at FanDuel. A minus number tells you what you must risk to win 100 dollars, so -1430 means risking 1,430 to profit 100. That equals an implied win chance of roughly 93 percent. Misolic is +980, meaning a 100 dollar bet returns 980 in profit, an implied win chance of about 9 percent. Implied chance is just the odds converted into a percentage. Notice those two add up to more than 100. That extra slice is the sportsbook's built-in margin, called the vig.

The Surface and Conditions

Hard court is the neutral ground of tennis. The bounce is true and medium-high, and the ball moves through the court faster than on clay but sits up more than on grass. In general terms, that rewards clean first-strike hitting, a reliable serve and the ability to end points in three or four shots. Players who rely purely on defense and extended rallies get less reward for their running, because the surface does not slow the ball down for them. Heavy topspin still works well on hard court, but it needs pace behind it.

Where the Value Is

Strip out the vig and the fair line on Cerundolo is roughly 91 percent, with Misolic around 9 percent. Expected value simply means the long-run profit or loss if you made the same bet a thousand times. At -1430 you are paying slightly above that fair 91 percent number, so the edge is thin at best. The lean is still the favorite, because the market read on the styles is sound, but this is a small-stake spot, not a place to reach. Shop every book. A move to -1250 elsewhere changes the math meaningfully.

The Pick

Francisco Cerundolo moneyline, -1430 at FanDuel, staked small. If you want more payout for the same opinion, a set handicap (laying sets instead of the match) is the natural alternative, priced at whatever your book offers.

The Prediction

Cerundolo controls the baseline exchanges, serves well enough to protect leads and closes it in straight sets, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

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