Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Barbora Krejcikova

The market read: Barbora Krejcikova is the favorite at -700 (implied 88% to win), with Anna-Lena Friedsam at +500 (17%) at the Singapore Open. Best US price at publish; the full pick and reasoning are below.

A Price That Does Most of the Talking

Seven to one. That is roughly what the market is asking you to lay on Barbora Krejcikova in Singapore, and it is the single loudest number on this board. Anna-Lena Friedsam sits at +500 with almost nothing else attached to her. When a price gets this lopsided, the bet stops being about who is better and starts being about how much you are being charged to say so.

The Matchup

We were given the two names, the tournament and the prices, so we will not pretend to know recent form or a head-to-head history here. What we do know is what the market believes. A -700 favorite is the books telling you they expect Krejcikova to control the terms of the match, hold serve comfortably and break often enough that the result is rarely in doubt. Friedsam is priced as the player who needs things to go her way: a slow start from the favorite, a tight set, a few loose service games. That is the entire story the number tells, and we will not invent more.

How They Are Priced

The moneyline is simply the bet on who wins the match, with no handicap attached. A minus number is the favorite and shows what you risk to win 100. So Krejcikova at -700 means risking 700 to win 100. A plus number is the underdog and shows what 100 returns. Friedsam at +500 means 100 risked returns 500 in profit. Convert those to chances and Krejcikova is priced at about 88 percent, Friedsam at about 17 percent. Best price on the dog is at Bovada, and on a longshot the difference between +500 and +450 is real money over a season. Always shop.

The Surface and Conditions

No surface was provided, so we are not going to guess one. In general terms, quicker courts reward flat, first-strike hitting and big serving because points end sooner and the better ball-striker gets fewer chances to be dragged into long exchanges. Slower courts reward movement, depth and patience, and they hand underdogs more rallies to hang around in. Slower conditions are almost always the underdog's friend, because every extra ball is another chance for the favorite to miss.

Where the Value Is

Add the two implied chances and you get about 104 percent. That extra 4 percent is the vig, the built-in house fee. Strip it out and fair odds are roughly 84 percent Krejcikova, 16 percent Friedsam. Now compare. Krejcikova is being sold at 88 percent when fair is 84, a 3.5 point tax. Friedsam is being sold at 17 percent when fair is 16, a tax of under one point. Expected value just means what a bet averages out to if you made it many times. Nearly all the negative expectation in this market is sitting on the favorite. The cheap side is the dog.

The Pick

Friedsam +500 at Bovada, small stake. We are buying the price, not making a bold claim about the result.

The Prediction

Krejcikova is the likelier winner and we will say so plainly: the most common outcome here is 6-4, 6-3 her way. But at -700 you are paying a premium for a conclusion the market already reached, while the 17 percent ticket is barely taxed at all. The version we are paid to hold is Friedsam 4-6, 6-4, 7-5. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, sitting right below.

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