New York Yankees starter · 4-5, 3.57 ERAGerrit Cole
Chicago Cubs starter · 8-7, 4.67 ERAColin Rea
🔒 Official play tonight
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| Market | New York Yankees | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -116Bet at FanDuel → | +106Bet at FanDuel → |
| Run line | -1.5 +155Bet at BetRivers → | +1.5 -170Bet at Caesars → |
| Total 6.5 | O -120Bet at DraftKings → | U +102Bet at FanDuel → |
📊 Team Breakdown real data · updated daily
New York YankeesChicago Cubs
Season win %
Last 5 games (newest first)
New York YankeesWLLWL
Chicago CubsWLWLWRuns scored vs allowed, last 5
New York Yankees13 for · 15 againstChicago Cubs21 for · 11 againstChance to win tonight, per the betting market
Chance to win tonight, per ESPN's computer model
Standings & streak
New York Yankees2nd AL East · 3.5 GB · L1Chicago Cubs2nd NL Central · 6.5 GB · W1How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, so it is the market's honest opinion. When that number and ESPN's model disagree, one of them is wrong, and that gap is where value lives.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented MLB plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins the game, nothing else. In this game, +106 means a $100 bet profits $106 if it wins. -116 means you risk $116 to profit $100, that's the favorite. The run line is baseball's point spread, almost always 1.5 runs. The total is a bet on combined runs by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV (positive expected value) means the price pays better than the true odds, the only proven way to profit long-term. Learn the full system free: Sports Betting 101 · Think Like the Book · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
A Coin-Flip Game With a Hidden Disagreement
The Yankees visit Wrigley Field on August 2 in a matchup of two 60-plus win teams separated by one game in the standings. The betting market calls this nearly even. One respected pregame model disagrees, and that gap between what the books say and what the numbers say is exactly where sharp bettors go looking. Add a howling 29 mph wind at Wrigley and a total of just 6.5, and this quiet Sunday game gets interesting fast.
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The Matchup
New York is 62-49, sitting second in the AL East, 3.5 games back, and coming off a loss. Chicago is 63-48, second in the NL Central, 6.5 games back, and just won. Recent form favors the home team. The Cubs have gone 3-2 over their last five while outscoring opponents 21 to 11. The Yankees are 2-3 in that span and were outscored 15 to 13. The season series is tied 1-1, so neither club has proven anything against the other yet.
Pitching Matchup
Starting pitchers matter more than any single player in baseball betting because they touch every at-bat for five or six innings. Gerrit Cole takes the ball for New York with a 4-5 record and a 3.57 ERA (earned run average, the runs a pitcher allows per nine innings, lower is better). Colin Rea counters for Chicago at 8-7 with a 4.67 ERA. On paper Cole has been more than a run better per nine innings, and that gap is a big reason the road team is favored despite Chicago's better record and better recent form.
The Numbers
The Yankees are -116 on the moneyline at FanDuel (a moneyline bet is simply picking who wins; at -116 you risk $116 to win $100). The Cubs are +106, also at FanDuel, meaning a $100 bet returns $106 in profit if Chicago wins. The run line, baseball's version of a point spread, has the Yankees -1.5 at +155 on BetRivers (they must win by two or more) and the Cubs +1.5 at -170 on Caesars (they can win outright or lose by exactly one). The total is 6.5, meaning books expect about six or seven runs; you bet whether the real number lands over or under it. The over is -120 at DraftKings and the under is +102 at FanDuel. Those book names matter. Prices vary across sportsbooks, and always grabbing the best one, called line shopping, is our core edge.
Conditions & Injuries
It is 72 degrees at Wrigley with wind at 29 mph, and wind is the single biggest weather factor at this ballpark, which helps explain the low 6.5 total. On injuries, the Yankees are without Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL) plus rotation arms Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt. The Cubs are missing relievers Hoby Milner and Ethan Roberts along with Matt Shaw. New York's absences bite harder, thinning both the lineup and the pitching depth behind Cole.
Conditions & Injuries
VenueWrigley Field
Weather72°F, 3, wind 29 mph
Season seriesSeries tied 1-1
CHCHoby Milner (15-Day-IL), Ethan Roberts (15-Day-IL), Matt Shaw (10-Day-IL)
NYYCarlos Rodon (15-Day-IL), Clarke Schmidt (60-Day-IL), Giancarlo Stanton (10-Day-IL)
More MLB games today
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs FAQ
Who is favored in New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs?
New York Yankees is the market favorite at -116 (best price at FanDuel) on the moneyline, with Chicago Cubs at +106. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Are these Wise Guy Team picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown - our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value?
Expected value first - the best price across the books versus the true fair price - then sharp-money confirmation from the betting splits. EV-primary, sharp-confirmed.
What is the total (over/under) for New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs?
The total is 6.5, with the over priced at -120 at DraftKings and the under at +102 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.