Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for July 20

Two Streaks Walk Into Fenway

You will not find a hotter matchup on the July 20 slate. The Boston Red Sox have won 13 straight games. The Baltimore Orioles have won 7 straight. One of these streaks almost certainly dies at Fenway Park, and the betting market has already made up its mind about which one. Our job is to figure out whether the market is right, and more importantly, whether it is offering a fair price. Spoiler: the answer is more interesting than the streaks themselves.

The Matchup

Boston sits at 50-48, third in the AL East and 6 games back of the division lead. Baltimore is 49-51, fourth in the same division and 8 games back. On paper these are two teams separated by a game and a half in the standings. In the moment, they are playing like contenders. Thirteen wins in a row is remarkable, and seven in a row is nothing to dismiss either. When two teams this hot meet, someone's momentum gets punctured, and the market's job is to price how likely each outcome is. As we will see, books think this one is far more lopsided than the records suggest.

Pitching Matchup

Starting pitchers drive baseball prices more than any other single factor, because the man on the mound touches every at-bat for the first five or six innings. Baltimore sends Shane Baz, who is 4-9 with a 4.19 ERA (earned run average, roughly how many runs a pitcher allows per nine innings). Boston counters with Payton Tolle at 5-6 with a 3.11 ERA. That is more than a full run of difference per nine innings in Boston's favor, and it is a big reason the odds tilt so hard toward the home team. Tolle has been the sturdier arm all season; Baz has been hittable.

The Numbers

Here is the full board, with the best price at every sportsbook, because shopping for the best number is our edge. The moneyline (simply picking who wins the game) has Baltimore at +360 at BetRivers, meaning a $100 bet returns $360 in profit if the Orioles win. Boston is -400 at Caesars, meaning you must risk $400 to win $100. The run line (baseball's version of a point spread) has Baltimore +2.5 at -125 at Fanatics, so the Orioles can lose by one or two runs and you still cash. Boston -2.5 pays +110 at Caesars, but the Red Sox must win by three or more. The total is 9.5, meaning books expect about 9 or 10 combined runs; you bet whether the real number lands over or under it. The Over is +100 (even money) at FanDuel, the Under is -110 at Caesars.

Conditions & Injuries

Conditions at Fenway are pleasant: 78 degrees, sunny, wind at 7 mph, nothing that dramatically changes run scoring. The injury sheet matters more. Baltimore is without catcher Adley Rutschman (10-day injured list), Samuel Basallo is day-to-day, and Colin Selby is on the 60-day IL. Boston is missing Ranger Suarez (15-day IL), Triston Casas (60-day IL) and Johan Oviedo (60-day IL). Losing Rutschman thins an Orioles lineup facing a starter with a 3.11 ERA.