Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Pick & Best Bet (Sep 7)

The First-Place Team Is the Underdog

Atlanta is 85-58 and leading the NL East. Philadelphia is 80-63 and five games back. And yet the Phillies are the favorite here, priced as a 60% shot to win. That happens for one reason in baseball: the man on the mound. Add a total of just 8 runs in a ballpark like Citizens Bank Park and you have two numbers worth pulling apart before you touch either one.

The Matchup

Atlanta leads the division and arrives on a one-game win streak, going 3-2 over its last five while scoring 26 runs and allowing 19. That is a little over five runs a game scored, under four allowed. Philadelphia has gone 2-3 in its last five with 17 runs scored and 14 allowed, so roughly 3.4 scored and 2.8 allowed per game. Quieter games, tighter games. Atlanta also leads the season series 2-1, which is a small sample but the Braves have not been intimidated in these meetings.

Pitching Matchup

Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.62 ERA) goes for Atlanta. ERA is earned run average, the average number of runs a pitcher allows per nine innings, so lower is better. Jesus Luzardo (13-5, 3.02 ERA) goes for Philadelphia. That gap, 3.02 against 3.62, is the entire reason the second-place team is favored over the first-place team. In baseball betting, starting pitchers move prices more than any other single factor, because one man can touch 60% or more of the outs in a game. Books price the arms first and the standings second.

The Numbers

Atlanta is +150 on the moneyline at Novig. A moneyline bet is simply picking the winner, and at +150 a $100 bet returns $150 in profit if the Braves win. Philadelphia is -152 at ProphetX, meaning you risk $152 to win $100. Strip out the built-in house margin (the vig) and the market's implied chances are Atlanta 40%, Philadelphia 60%. The total is 8, meaning the books expect about eight runs combined between both teams, and you bet whether the real number finishes over or under.

Over 8 is +104 at ProphetX, so $100 profits $104. The run line, which is baseball's version of a point spread, is not posted at our books for this game. Note that the best Braves price and the best Phillies price sit at two different books. That is line shopping, and it is value left on the table if you only hold one account.

Conditions & Injuries

It is 76 degrees with a 9 mph breeze at Citizens Bank Park, benign baseball weather with nothing suppressing the ball. Both bullpens are thinner than they look on paper. Atlanta is without Reynaldo Lopez (15-day IL), Robert Suarez (60-day IL) and Joe Jimenez (60-day IL). Philadelphia is missing Tanner Banks (60-day IL), Caleb Kilian (15-day IL) and Felix Reyes (60-day IL). Two quality starters, two shorthanded relief groups, and a total set at only eight runs.