📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
St. Louis CardinalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Last 5 games (newest first)
St. Louis CardinalsWLWLL
Philadelphia PhilliesWWWWWRuns scored vs allowed, last 5
St. Louis Cardinals26 for · 33 against Philadelphia Phillies35 for · 19 against Pregame chance to win, per the betting market
Pregame chance to win, per ESPN's computer model
Standings & streak
St. Louis Cardinals3rd NL Central · 15.5 GB · L2 Philadelphia Phillies2nd NL East · 3 GB · W8 How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, so it is the market's honest opinion. When that number and ESPN's model disagree, one of them is wrong, and that gap is where value lives.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A
moneyline bet is picking who wins the game, nothing else. In this game, +195 means a $100 bet profits $195 if it wins. -205 means you risk $205 to profit $100, that's the favorite. The
run line is baseball's point spread, almost always 1.5 runs. The
total is a bet on combined runs by both teams, over or under the books' number.
+EV (positive expected value) means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (the line with the vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn the full system free:
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Two Teams Headed in Opposite Directions
Sunday at Citizens Bank Park gives us one of the sharper contrasts on the slate. Philadelphia has won eight straight and is chasing the top of the NL East. St. Louis has dropped two in a row and is treading water in the NL Central. The pitching matchup features two of the better records in baseball, and the betting market has priced this one with a clear favorite.
The Matchup
The Phillies are 72-58, second in the NL East and just 3 games back of the division lead (games back measures how far a team trails first place). They have won eight in a row, and over their last five they have outscored opponents 35 to 19. The Cardinals are 66-65, third in the NL Central and 15.5 games back, so they are playing more for pride than a division title. Their last five went win, loss, win, loss, loss, with 26 runs scored and 33 allowed. Philadelphia has also taken both meetings between these clubs this season, so the season series sits 2-0 in their favor.
Pitching Matchup
Starters drive baseball prices more than any single factor, because the man on the mound touches every at-bat for the first five or six innings. Philadelphia sends Cristopher Sanchez, who is 16-4 with a 2.51 ERA (earned run average, the runs a pitcher allows per nine innings, so lower is better). That is ace-level production. St. Louis counters with Kyle Leahy, quietly excellent himself at 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA. This is not a mismatch. It is a strong arm against an elite one, which is exactly why the total on this game is low.
The Numbers
Philadelphia is -205 on the moneyline at FanDuel (a moneyline bet is simply picking who wins; at -205 you risk $205 to win $100). St. Louis is +195 at DraftKings, meaning a $100 bet returns $195 in profit if the Cardinals win. On the run line (baseball's version of a point spread, always set at 1.5 runs), the Phillies -1.5 pays +106 at BetRivers, so they must win by 2 or more, while the Cardinals +1.5 costs -120 at DraftKings and cashes if St.
Louis wins or loses by exactly one. The total is 7.5, meaning books expect roughly 7 or 8 runs; you bet whether the real number lands over or under it, with the over at -105 at FanDuel and the under at -105 at Caesars. Those best prices come from different books, which is why we shop every line. Taking -205 instead of a worse -215 elsewhere adds up over a season.
Conditions & Injuries
Game-time conditions call for 81°F with a 15 mph wind at Citizens Bank Park, a park where wind can matter on fly balls. Philadelphia lists Derek Hill and Luis Arraez as day-to-day and Rafael Marchan on the 10-day injured list. St. Louis has Masyn Winn day-to-day, Ramon Urias on the 60-day IL, and pitcher Andre Pallante on the 15-day IL. Winn's status is worth monitoring before first pitch.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies FAQ
Who is favored in St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies?
Philadelphia Phillies is the market favorite at -205 (best price at FanDuel) on the moneyline, with St. Louis Cardinals at +195. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Are these Wise Guy Team picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown - our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value?
Expected value first - the best price across the books versus the true fair price - then sharp-money confirmation from the betting splits. EV-primary, sharp-confirmed.
What is the total (over/under) for St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies?
The total is 7.5, with the over priced at -105 at FanDuel and the under at -105 at Caesars. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
