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Joe Milton III (DAL)9/13, 179 YDS, 2 TD
Spencer Rattler (NO)14/23, 141 YDS, 1 INTThe New Orleans Saints roll into AT&T Stadium at 0-2 to face a Dallas Cowboys team that has done everything right so far at 2-0. The headline story in this Saints vs Cowboys matchup is under center. One quarterback has been surgical. The other has been fighting for every yard and giving some back. When odds have not posted yet, as is the case here, the smart move is to build your read on the matchup first, then pounce when the number goes live. That is exactly what we will do.
Dallas is 2-0 in this exhibition slate, and New Orleans is 0-2. Records at this stage are not everything, but how a team gets to those records matters. The Cowboys have gotten efficient quarterback play. The Saints have not. This game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington gives both clubs one more look at their rosters, and it gives us a clean read on which offense is functioning.
Joe Milton III has been the story for Dallas. He is 9 of 13 for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns. That is a 69 percent completion rate and a massive 13.8 yards per attempt, which means every time he drops back, Dallas is averaging almost 14 yards. Those are explosive, efficient numbers. On the other side, Spencer Rattler leads New Orleans at 14 of 23 for 141 yards with 1 interception. That is roughly 61 percent completions, only 6.1 yards per attempt, no touchdowns, and a turnover. The gap between those two stat lines is the gap between these two teams right now.
Here is the beginner-friendly part. Sportsbooks have not posted odds for this Cowboys vs Saints game yet. When they do, you will see three main markets. The spread is a handicap, meaning one team must win by more than a set number of points for that bet to cash. The moneyline is simpler, you just pick the winner outright.
The total is a bet on the combined points scored by both teams, over or under a posted number. Our standing advice never changes: compare that number across multiple sportsbooks before you bet, because a half point of difference can flip a loss into a win. Getting the best available price is the single easiest edge a bettor has.
Without a posted line, we cannot yet strip out the vig, which is the sportsbook's built-in fee, to find the market-implied probability. But the matchup data points one direction. Dallas is 2-0 with a quarterback completing 69 percent of his throws at nearly 14 yards a pop with 2 touchdowns. New Orleans is 0-2 with a quarterback averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns, and an interception. Expected value means betting when the price you get is better than the real likelihood of the outcome. If books open this line tighter than that quarterback gap suggests, the value sits with the home team.
New Orleans is thinner. Moliki Matavao, Ty Chandler, and Rejzohn Wright are all on injured reserve, meaning they are out and unavailable. Dallas has Kelvin Gilliam Jr. on injured reserve, while DJ Rogers and Zion Childress are questionable, meaning their availability is uncertain but possible. Three players fully shelved for the Saints versus one for the Cowboys tilts the depth battle further toward Dallas.
The Wise Guy Desk lean is the Dallas Cowboys. No price to quote yet, so the assignment is simple: when odds post, shop every book you have access to and take the best available number on Dallas. This is desk analysis for education, not an official documented play.
Everything real in this game favors Dallas. The quarterback play is sharper, the record is cleaner, and the injury sheet is shorter. Unless Rattler and the Saints offense find a gear they have not shown through two games, the Cowboys close their exhibition slate at 3-0 in front of the home crowd. Projected score: Cowboys 24, Saints 16.
With Joe Milton III carving up defenses and the Saints still searching for answers, the Wise Guy Desk leans Cowboys once the line posts at AT&T Stadium.
With Joe Milton III carving up defenses and the Saints still searching for answers, the Wise Guy Desk leans Cowboys once the line posts at AT&T Stadium. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.