Looking for the next game?
This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$811k traded · 25k trades
New Orleans SaintsDetroit Lions
Trades
Money
Spread$309k traded · 2.2k trades
New Orleans Saints +7.5Detroit Lions -7.5
Trades
Money
Total 35.5$92k traded · 1.6k trades
Over 35.5Under 35.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$33k traded · 201 trades
New Orleans SaintsDetroit Lions
Trades
Money
Spread$47k traded · 487 trades
New Orleans Saints +6.5Detroit Lions -6.5
Trades
Money
Total 49.5$11k traded · 36 trades
Over 49.5Under 49.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Detroit Lions win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Detroit Lions to win, from 168 hours before the start to 103 hours before the start: Polymarket (international) 75% to 75%; Kalshi 74% to 75%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Detroit Lions, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket (international)KalshiScale 70% to 80%
New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | New Orleans Saints | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +285Pregame price at ProphetX →Best partner price: FanDuel +270 exchange price | -300Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Spread | +7 +101Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price | -7 -102Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Total 49.5 | O -106Pregame price at ProphetX →Best partner price: Fanatics -110 exchange price | U +102Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +285 means a $100 bet profits $285 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
A Favorite Priced Past Its Own Math
That means anyone laying -300 is paying 17 cents more than the market's read. Small, but it is the tell. Lions vs Saints opens the 2026 regular season with a number that leans, quietly, toward the dog.
The Matchup
This is Week 1 of the 2026 regular season at Ford Field, kickoff Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Both clubs sit at 0-0 as we publish, because nobody has played yet. That means no season series, no form, no trends to lean on, only the price. Detroit is the favorite, New Orleans is the underdog, and the gap is 183 cents past even money.
Players to Watch
Alvin Kamara is listed questionable for New Orleans. Questionable means uncertain, nothing more, and we will not put a number on it. Behind him, Audric Estime is on injured reserve and tight end Oscar Delp is out, so the Saints' depth at the skill spots is thinner than the depth chart suggests. For Detroit, safety Christian Izien is questionable, offensive lineman Cade Mays is on injured reserve, and defensive lineman Payton Turner is on injured reserve. Watch Detroit's interior line first: that is where a seven point home favorite either controls a script or does not.
The Numbers
Three markets, best price across the regulated books we track. Moneyline (a straight bet on who wins): Saints +285 at ProphetX, meaning $100 risked profits $285.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 26 percent. Lions -300 at ProphetX: $100 risked profits $33.33 and loses $100, break-even 75 percent.
Spread (a bet on the margin): Saints +7 at +101 at ProphetX wins if New Orleans wins outright or loses by six or fewer, pushes (stake returned) on an exact seven point loss, and loses on an eight point loss. Lions -7 at -102 wins only by eight or more, pushes at exactly seven, loses on a six point win. Total (combined points): Over 49.5 -106, Under 49.5 +102, both best at ProphetX.
Where the Value Is
That is also the lowest break-even percentage on the board at 26 percent. Note that the spread is its own bet, settled on margin, not a version of the moneyline.
Injuries
Six names in total. Detroit: Izien questionable, Mays on injured reserve, Turner on injured reserve. New Orleans: Kamara questionable, Estime on injured reserve, Delp out. Final designations land before Sunday's 1:00 PM ET kickoff, and the Saints' backfield question is the one that can move this number.
The Pick
New Orleans +7 at +101, best at ProphetX. If the number shrinks to +6.5, the edge is gone, because seven points is the push you are buying.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
That was the Desk's read. Want the documented free play too?
Ross's free VIP play lands in your inbox whenever one is on the board, by 5 PM ET on weekdays and by noon ET on weekends. Every play is posted before the game and graded in public, win or lose. The Official board: 6 straight winning years.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
The Prediction
Detroit 26, New Orleans 21. That is 47 combined points, below the 49.5 total, but both total prices grade negative, so we pass there and keep the seven. That is the read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play sits right below.
Injury Report
DETChristian Izien (Questionable), Cade Mays (Injured Reserve), Payton Turner (Injured Reserve)
NOAlvin Kamara (Questionable), Audric Estime (Injured Reserve), Oscar Delp (Out)
More NFL matchups
Saints vs Lions FAQ
Who was favored in Saints vs Lions?
Lions is the market favorite at -300 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Saints at +285. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Lions vs Saints?
New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions NFL prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Saints vs Lions?
The total is 49.5, with the over priced at -106 at ProphetX and the under at +102 at ProphetX. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits