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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket (international), Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$5.2M traded · 124k trades
New England PatriotsSeattle Seahawks
Trades
Money
Spread$1.4M traded · 22k trades
New England Patriots +3.5Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 44.5$467k traded · 8.4k trades
Over 44.5Under 44.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket (international)
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Moneyline$196k traded · 1.7k trades
New England PatriotsSeattle Seahawks
Trades
Money
Spread$373k traded · 812 trades
New England Patriots +3.5Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 44.5$209k traded · 266 trades
Over 44.5Under 44.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Seattle Seahawks win price on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) as kickoff neared
Seattle Seahawks to win, from 167 hours before the start to 18 hours before the start: Kalshi 62% to 62%; Polymarket (international) 63% to 62%. These are exchange prices, read as the chance the market gave Seattle Seahawks, not sportsbook odds. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
KalshiPolymarket (international)Scale 60% to 70%
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Ross has an official play on this game
Ross has an official, documented play on this game, bet with his own money and posted for members with the ticket photo. The side stays with members, so the Desk's free read comes off this page and you never get a mixed signal. The breakdown and numbers below are still free.
Official board, 3 straight winning NBA plays 3-0 every ticket posted before the game, graded in public Bonus plays, last 6 college basketball plays 5-1 every ticket posted before the game, graded in public |
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WHALE WINNER
✓ CASHED · ORE Ducks +7.5 (Spread)
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New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | New England Patriots | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +160Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -162Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Spread | +3.5 -115Pregame price at Hard Rock Bet → | -3.5 +113Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 44.5 | O +102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U -- |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +160 means a $100 bet profits $160 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
A Favorite You Can Back at Plus Money
One sportsbook will let you lay 3.5 points with the Seattle Seahawks and pay you +113 for it. That means you risk $100 to win $113 on a team the market gives a 62% chance to simply win the game. Favorites almost never come with a plus sign attached to the spread. That single price is the sharpest thing on the board in Patriots vs Seahawks, and it exists only because the books we track disagree with each other by a few cents.
The Matchup
Both the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks open the season at 0-0. Week 1 is the one week of the year where the betting market is working off projections instead of results, which is exactly why the numbers move around and why prices differ from book to book.
Players to Watch
The names that matter most here are the ones on the injury sheet. New England rookie-era running back TreVeyon Henderson is ruled out, which removes a piece of the Patriots offense before the opener even kicks off. Brenden Schooler, a core special teams presence, is also out, and offensive lineman Ben Brown joins him. For Seattle, receiver Tory Horton and safety Nick Emmanwori are both questionable, meaning their status is genuinely undecided and could be settled close to kickoff. Defensive back Ty Okada is out. Watch the Friday and Sunday reports on Horton and Emmanwori; those two swing how much the Seahawks number moves before the game starts.
The Numbers
Start with the moneyline, the simplest bet there is: pick who wins, no points involved. Seattle is -162 at ProphetX, so you risk $162 to win $100. Next, the point spread, which is a handicap the favorite must overcome. The Seahawks at -3.5 must win by 4 or more for that bet to cash. The Patriots at +3.5 cash if they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer. There is no Under price posted on our board, so we leave the total alone entirely.
Injuries
New England is thinner than Seattle here. Henderson, Schooler and Brown are all out, hitting the backfield, special teams and the offensive line. Seattle loses Okada and could be without Horton or Emmanwori. Questionable is a real coin flip, so confirm both before you bet, particularly Emmanwori on the back end.
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Injury Report
SEATy Okada (Out), Tory Horton (Questionable), Nick Emmanwori (Questionable)
NETreVeyon Henderson (Out), Brenden Schooler (Out), Ben Brown (Out)
More NFL matchups
Patriots vs Seahawks FAQ
Who was favored in Patriots vs Seahawks?
Seahawks is the market favorite at -162 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Patriots at +160. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What was the pregame read on Seahawks vs Patriots?
A Week 1 opener at Lumen Field where the spread market is priced so tightly that the book you use decides the value. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Patriots vs Seahawks?
The total is 44.5, with the over priced at +102 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NFL picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NFL games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NFL public betting splits · DraftKings betting splits