Packers vs Vikings Prediction & Odds (Sep 13)

Sixteen Cents From Even Money

Take the sportsbook's built in cut out of this price and the market lands on Minnesota 53.8%, Green Bay 46.2%. Week 1 of the 2026 regular season, Sunday, September 13, kickoff at 4:25 PM ET inside U.S. Bank Stadium. Vikings vs Packers is not a game the market pretends to have solved. It is a game the market priced tight, and then one book left a small edge lying in the open.

The Matchup

As of publication both clubs are 0-0. No season series results, no standings and no prior meetings are in our data set for this game, so we are not going to invent a narrative out of thin air. What we have is a venue, a kickoff and a price. Minnesota is the home team and the favorite on the moneyline at -124.

A moneyline bet is the simplest bet in football: you pick the winner, nothing else matters. Green Bay is the underdog at +121. The point spread is Minnesota -1.5, meaning the books think the home side is worth roughly a field goal drive's worth of nothing, a single point and a half. That is about as thin as a spread gets in the NFL.

Players to Watch

There are no statistical leaders in our data for this matchup, so the names that actually move the needle here are the ones on the official availability report. For Green Bay, watch Aaron Banks. He carries a questionable designation, which means uncertain and nothing more precise than that, and interior offensive line bodies matter in a dome where crowd noise complicates communication. Warren Brinson is out. Zach Bako-Bewele is also questionable. For Minnesota, three names are already on Injured Reserve and out of this equation: Ben Yurosek, Michael Jurgens and Tyler Batty. Depth pieces, but the market has already digested them into this 1.5.

The Numbers

Moneyline first. Green Bay +121 is best at ProphetX. A $100 bet profits $121.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not. Its break-even rate, the winning percentage you need just to stop losing money, is 45.2%. Now the spread. Green Bay +1.5 at +107 is best at ProphetX. That ticket wins if Green Bay wins outright or loses by exactly one point. It loses on a two point loss, and because the line sits on a half point there is no tie, no refund.

Break-even on +107 is 48.3%. Minnesota -1.5 at -110 is best at FanDuel: it wins only if Minnesota wins by two or more, a one point win loses, and the break-even is 52.4%. The total is 46.5, which is a bet on the two teams' combined points. Over 46.5 is +100 at theScore Bet (break-even 50%), Under 46.5 is -110 at BetMGM (break-even 52.4%). Shopping those books is not a detail. It is the whole job.

Injuries

Six names, three per side. Minnesota has Ben Yurosek, Michael Jurgens and Tyler Batty on Injured Reserve, all unavailable. Green Bay lists Warren Brinson as out, with Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele questionable. Questionable means genuinely undecided, so we do not attach a number to it or bet as if we know.