📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
New York MetsToronto Blue Jays
Last 5 games (newest first)
New York MetsLWLLW
Toronto Blue JaysLLLWLRuns scored vs allowed, last 5
New York Mets15 for · 11 against Toronto Blue Jays12 for · 19 against Pregame chance to win, per the betting market
Pregame chance to win, per ESPN's computer model
How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, so it is the market's honest opinion. When that number and ESPN's model disagree, one of them is wrong, and that gap is where value lives.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A
moneyline bet is picking who wins the game, nothing else. A plus number is the underdog: +150 means a $100 bet profits $150. -110 means you risk $110 to profit $100, that's the favorite. The
run line is baseball's point spread, almost always 1.5 runs. The
total is a bet on combined runs by both teams, over or under the books' number.
+EV (positive expected value) means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (the line with the vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn the full system free:
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A Coin-Flip in Toronto
Two teams having tough seasons meet at Rogers Centre on July 1, and the betting market can barely tell them apart. The New York Mets (36-50) are traveling to face the Toronto Blue Jays (40-46), and the fair odds put this within a single percentage point. When a game is this close, the value is not in the winner. It is in the price. Let us walk through it.
The Matchup
The Mets sit last in the NL East, 14.5 games back, which is the gap between them and the division lead. But they arrive with a bit of life, going 2-3 over their last five (a win, loss, win, loss, then a win) and scoring 15 while allowing 11 in that stretch. Toronto is trending the other way, dropping four of five (three straight losses, a win, then a loss) and getting outscored 19 to 12 over that span. The season series between these two is even at 1-1, so neither club has proven anything against the other yet.
Pitching Matchup
In baseball, the starting pitcher shapes a game more than any single player in most sports, which is why bettors weigh starters so heavily. New York sends Freddy Peralta (5-6, with a 4.53 ERA, meaning he allows about 4.53 earned runs per nine innings on average). Toronto counters with Braydon Fisher (3-3, 3.48 ERA), the sharper number on paper. On ERA alone, Fisher has been the tougher man to score against this season, though his win-loss record is more modest. The gap in run prevention is real but not enormous, and both bullpens will matter given how close the projections are.
The Numbers
Start with the moneyline, which is simply a bet on who wins. The Mets are -110 at Fanatics (you risk $110 to win $100), while the Blue Jays are -102 at FanDuel (risk $102 to win $100). Those are close to even money, telling you the books see a coin flip. The run line adds a margin: the Mets are -1.5 at +145 (Fanatics), meaning they must win by two or more runs and pay $145 profit per $100.
The Blue Jays are +1.5 at -164 (FanDuel), meaning they can lose by one and still cash, but you risk $164 to win $100. The total is 8.5, the combined runs books expect. The Over is -120 at Caesars and the Under is +102 at FanDuel. Always take the best posted number, because shopping across books is where small, permanent edges are won.
Conditions & Injuries
Toronto is monitoring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and RJ Schreck as day-to-day, with Lenyn Sosa on the 10-day injured list. The Mets list Joe Jacques and Jose Rojas as day-to-day and Justin Hagenman on the 60-day injured list. A Guerrero absence would dent Toronto's lineup, so confirm the card before betting.
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New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays FAQ
Who is favored in New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays?
New York Mets is the market favorite at -110 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with Toronto Blue Jays at -102. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Are these Wise Guy Team picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown - our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value?
Expected value first - the best price across the books versus the true fair price - then sharp-money confirmation from the betting splits. EV-primary, sharp-confirmed.
What is the total (over/under) for New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays?
The total is 8.5, with the over priced at -120 at Caesars and the under at +102 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
