📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Detroit TigersNew York Yankees
Last 5 games (newest first)
Detroit TigersWLLWW
New York YankeesLLLLLRuns scored vs allowed, last 5
Detroit Tigers35 for · 21 against New York Yankees12 for · 31 against Pregame chance to win, per the betting market
Pregame chance to win, per ESPN's computer model
Standings & streak
Detroit Tigers4th AL Central · 9 GB · W2 New York Yankees2nd AL East · 2.5 GB · L6 How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, so it is the market's honest opinion. When that number and ESPN's model disagree, one of them is wrong, and that gap is where value lives.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A
moneyline bet is picking who wins the game, nothing else. In this game, +120 means a $100 bet profits $120 if it wins. -140 means you risk $140 to profit $100, that's the favorite. The
run line is baseball's point spread, almost always 1.5 runs. The
total is a bet on combined runs by both teams, over or under the books' number.
+EV (positive expected value) means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (the line with the vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn the full system free:
Sports Betting 101 ·
Think Like the Book ·
Odds converter ·
No-vig calculator
The Hook
On paper this looks simple. The New York Yankees sit second in the AL East and host the Detroit Tigers, a losing team stuck 9 games back in their division. But baseball rarely respects the standings on a given night, and right now these two teams are moving in opposite directions. One walks in red hot. The other is trying to stop the bleeding. That tension is exactly where thoughtful bettors go looking for an edge.
The Matchup
Detroit is 37-49 overall, fourth of five teams in the AL Central and 9 games behind the leader. New York is 48-37, second in the AL East and just 2.5 games back. So the season-long body of work clearly favors the Yankees. Recent form flips that script.
The Tigers have gone 4-1 over their last five, outscoring opponents 35 to 21, and they arrive on a two-game winning streak. The Yankees have lost five straight (six overall by streak count), and in their last five they were outscored 31 to 12. On top of that, Detroit already owns this season series 2-0, meaning they have beaten New York both times these clubs have met.
Pitching Matchup
In baseball, the starting pitcher shapes the game more than any single player in any other major sport, because he touches every pitch until he leaves. That is why bettors weigh starters so heavily. Detroit hands the ball to Troy Melton, who is 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA (earned run average, the average runs a pitcher allows per nine innings, where lower is better). New York counters with Will Warren at 7-3 and a 3.75 ERA. Warren has the wins, but Melton has been the stingier arm this season, and that gap matters when you expect a tight, low-scoring night.
The Numbers
Start with the moneyline, which is simply a bet on who wins the game outright. Detroit is +120 at FanDuel, meaning a $100 bet profits $120 if the Tigers win. New York is -140 at Caesars, meaning you risk $140 to profit $100. Next is the run line, baseball's version of a spread. Detroit +1.5 at -162 (FanDuel) means the Tigers can lose by exactly one run and your bet still cashes.
New York -1.5 at +140 (Caesars) means the Yankees must win by two or more. The total is set at 9.5, the combined runs both teams are expected to score; you bet Over (-107 at DraftKings) or Under (-105 at FanDuel). Notice the best prices live at different books. Shopping for the top number on every line is the most dependable edge a bettor controls.
Conditions & Injuries
First pitch conditions read 89 degrees with wind around 10 mph at Yankee Stadium, warm weather that can help the ball carry. New York is banged up: Jazz Chisholm Jr. is day-to-day, while Ryan McMahon and Trent Grisham are both on the 10-day injured list. Detroit lists Bailey Horn on the 60-day IL, Josue Briceno day-to-day, and Matt Seelinger on the developmental list.
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Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees FAQ
Who is favored in Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees?
New York Yankees is the market favorite at -140 (best price at Caesars) on the moneyline, with Detroit Tigers at +120. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Are these Wise Guy Team picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown - our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value?
Expected value first - the best price across the books versus the true fair price - then sharp-money confirmation from the betting splits. EV-primary, sharp-confirmed.
What is the total (over/under) for Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees?
The total is 9.5, with the over priced at -107 at DraftKings and the under at -105 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
