Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks & Best Bet

A Favorite With Questions, an Underdog With a Receipt

On paper this looks lopsided. Minnesota sits at 15-6, second in the West. Connecticut is 5-16, last in the East. But look closer. The Lynx arrive on a two-game losing streak with serious injury problems, while the Sun are coming off a win and, quietly, already own a victory over Minnesota this season. When the record gap and the actual matchup tell different stories, that is exactly where betting markets can be tested.

The Matchup

Minnesota (15-6) has been one of the league's better teams, but the Lynx enter having lost two straight. Connecticut (5-16) sits seventh of seven in the East, 7.5 games back, though the Sun just won their last game. The season series matters here: Connecticut leads it 1-0, meaning the Sun have already beaten this Minnesota team once in 2026. The rematch happens at Mohegan Sun Arena, Connecticut's home floor, which removes one more advantage from the favorite's column.

Players to Watch

Olivia Miles leads Minnesota at 18.5 points per game and is the engine of this offense. Her status is the single biggest variable in this game, and we will cover it below. For Connecticut, the top scorer is Aneesah Morrow at 10.5 points per game. That modest number tells you the Sun spread scoring around rather than leaning on one star, which can actually help a team absorb an absence, and they will need to, because Morrow's availability is also an issue tonight.

The Numbers

The moneyline is a bet on who wins the game, period. Minnesota is -310, best at FanDuel, meaning you risk $310 to win $100. Connecticut is +260, best at BetMGM, meaning a $100 bet returns $260 profit if the Sun win outright. The point spread is Minnesota -7.5, best at -102 on DraftKings, which means the Lynx must win by 8 or more for that bet to cash. Connecticut +7.5 at -114 on FanDuel cashes if the Sun lose by 7 or fewer, or win the game outright. The total is 168.5: Over -105 at DraftKings pays if the teams combine for 169 or more points, Under -105 at Caesars pays if they combine for 168 or fewer. Notice that no single book has the best price on everything. Shopping every line across books is the cheapest edge in betting, and it is ours.

Where the Value Is

Strip out the sportsbook's built-in fee and the market says Minnesota wins this game 73 percent of the time, Connecticut 27 percent. That 73 percent feels rich to us for a Lynx team missing its best pieces. Expected value is simple: if your true win chance is higher than the price implies, every $100 bet is worth more than $100 over the long run. With Minnesota badly shorthanded, Connecticut healthy enough at home, and the Sun already 1-0 against this opponent, we think the Sun's chance of staying within 7 points is meaningfully better than the market suggests. That gap is where the value lives, and taking the best number, +7.5 at -114 rather than a worse price elsewhere, widens it.

Injuries

This is the heart of the handicap. Minnesota is without Napheesa Collier (out) and Emma Cechova (out), and top scorer Olivia Miles (18.5 PPG) is day-to-day. Connecticut is missing its own leading scorer, Aneesah Morrow (out), but at 10.5 points per game her absence removes far less offense than what Minnesota is missing. One side loses a role-level scorer; the other could be without its two best players.

The Pick

The Wise Guy Desk lean is Connecticut Sun +7.5 at -114, best price at FanDuel. This is desk analysis, not Ross's official documented play.

The Prediction

A depleted Lynx team on a two-game slide walks into a building where the Sun already beat them once. Minnesota may still win, but 7.5 points is too many to ask of this roster tonight. Projected score: Minnesota 83, Connecticut 79. Sun cover.