Fight Night in Vegas
UFC 329 lands at T-Mobile Arena on July 11, 2026, with Conor McGregor (22-6-0) meeting Max Holloway (27-9-0) in a rematch that headlines a thirteen fight card. Below the headliner sit ranked bantamweights, a former champion trying to climb back, and an undefeated Olympian at heavyweight. The Wise Guy Desk breaks down every price on the board, teaching as we go.
How UFC Betting Works
MMA betting is almost entirely the moneyline, which just means picking who wins. There are no point spreads because a fight has no score to spread. The number tells you the cost. Alessandro Costa at -250 means you risk $250 to win $100. Cody Durden at +225 means you risk $100 to win $225.
Books bake a fee (the vig) into both sides, so we strip it out to get a fair win probability. Costa's fair number is 70 percent. Compare the fair number to what the price implies and you know whether a bet is worth it. Always shop for the best number across books, because half a point of price is real money over time.
Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
Durden (18-10-1) is +225 at BetMGM, Costa (16-5-0) is -250 at DraftKings. The market gives Costa a 70 percent fair chance. Durden needs the fight to break against expectation, and +225 implies only about 31 percent.
Zachary Reese vs Ryan Gandra
Reese (10-3-0) at +118 on FanDuel against Gandra (9-1-0) at -130 on DraftKings is close to a coin flip, 45 percent fair versus 55. The market slightly trusts Gandra's near spotless record.
Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas
Pinas (9-1-0) is -205 at DraftKings with a 66 percent fair chance over Almeida (7-2-0), who sits at +195 at Caesars against a 35 percent fair number. That gap between price and fair matters, more below.
Wang Cong vs Tracy Cortez
A true pick-em. Wang Cong (9-1-0) is -105 at Caesars, Cortez (12-3-0) is -104 at FanDuel, fair split 51 to 49. The market cannot separate them, so the winner of this bet is whoever shops the best number.
Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley
Kamaka (18-7-1) meets the undefeated Riley (13-0-0), but odds have not posted yet. No price means no bet. Wait for the number.
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
Former champion Garbrandt (15-7-0) is a big +340 underdog at BetMGM, 23 percent fair. Yanez (17-6-1) is -410 at DraftKings, 77 percent fair. The market sees this as a heavy mismatch on paper.
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
Steveson (3-0-0) at -2500 is the biggest favorite on the card, meaning you risk $2,500 to win $100. His fair chance is 92 percent. Ellison (5-2-0) is +1300 at DraftKings with an 8 percent fair shot.
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
Whittaker (27-9-0) is -140 at Caesars, 56 percent fair, over Krylov (31-11-0) at +125 on BetMGM, 44 percent. A competitive line for two deeply experienced veterans.
King Green vs Terrance McKinney
Green (35-17-1) is +135 at BetMGM, 43 percent fair. McKinney (18-8-0) is -148 at DraftKings, 59 percent.
Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh
Kavanagh (10-1-0) is -218 at DraftKings, 66 percent fair, over the far more experienced Royval (17-9-0) at +185, 34 percent fair. The market is paying for youth over mileage here.
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Sandhagen (18-6-0) is -148 at DraftKings, 57 percent fair. Bautista (17-3-0) is +125 at Caesars, 43 percent. A tight bantamweight line between two elite records.
Paddy Pimblett vs Benoît Saint Denis
Pimblett (23-4-0) at +120 on BetMGM versus Saint Denis (17-3-0) at -135 on DraftKings, fair 45 to 56.
Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor
Holloway (27-9-0) is -210 at Caesars, 66 percent fair. McGregor (22-6-0) is +190 at BetMGM, 34 percent. The market makes Holloway a clear two-to-one favorite in the rematch.
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UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 FAQ
Who is favored in the UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?
Alessandro Costa is the market favorite at -250 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Cody Durden at +225. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
How does UFC betting work?
Almost everything runs through the moneyline: pick the winner of the fight. There are no point spreads. Books also offer round totals (how long the fight lasts) and method-of-victory props. Favorites carry minus numbers, underdogs plus numbers, and prices vary a lot between books, so shopping for the best number matters.
Are these UFC picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
18-10-1
16-5-0
9-1-0
9-1-0
13-0-0
27-9-0
31-11-0
17-3-0
22-6-0