Fight Night in Vegas
UFC 329 lands at T-Mobile Arena on July 11, 2026, with Conor McGregor (22-6-0) meeting Max Holloway (27-9-0) in a rematch that headlines a thirteen fight card. Below the headliner sit ranked bantamweights, a former champion trying to climb back, and an undefeated Olympian at heavyweight. The Wise Guy Desk breaks down every price on the board, teaching as we go.
How UFC Betting Works
MMA betting is almost entirely the moneyline, which just means picking who wins. There are no point spreads because a fight has no score to spread. The number tells you the cost. Alessandro Costa at -250 means you risk $250 to win $100. Cody Durden at +225 means you risk $100 to win $225. Books bake a fee (the vig) into both sides, so we strip it out to get a fair win probability. Costa's fair number is 70 percent. Compare the fair number to what the price implies and you know whether a bet is worth it. Always shop for the best number across books, because half a point of price is real money over time.
Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
Durden (18-10-1) is +225 at BetMGM, Costa (16-5-0) is -250 at DraftKings. The market gives Costa a 70 percent fair chance. Durden needs the fight to break against expectation, and +225 implies only about 31 percent.
Zachary Reese vs Ryan Gandra
Reese (10-3-0) at +118 on FanDuel against Gandra (9-1-0) at -130 on DraftKings is close to a coin flip, 45 percent fair versus 55. The market slightly trusts Gandra's near spotless record.
Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas
Pinas (9-1-0) is -205 at DraftKings with a 66 percent fair chance over Almeida (7-2-0), who sits at +195 at Caesars against a 35 percent fair number. That gap between price and fair matters, more below.
Wang Cong vs Tracy Cortez
A true pick-em. Wang Cong (9-1-0) is -105 at Caesars, Cortez (12-3-0) is -104 at FanDuel, fair split 51 to 49. The market cannot separate them, so the winner of this bet is whoever shops the best number.
Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley
Kamaka (18-7-1) meets the undefeated Riley (13-0-0), but odds have not posted yet. No price means no bet. Wait for the number.
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
Former champion Garbrandt (15-7-0) is a big +340 underdog at BetMGM, 23 percent fair. Yanez (17-6-1) is -410 at DraftKings, 77 percent fair. The market sees this as a heavy mismatch on paper.
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
Steveson (3-0-0) at -2500 is the biggest favorite on the card, meaning you risk $2,500 to win $100. His fair chance is 92 percent. Ellison (5-2-0) is +1300 at DraftKings with an 8 percent fair shot.
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
Whittaker (27-9-0) is -140 at Caesars, 56 percent fair, over Krylov (31-11-0) at +125 on BetMGM, 44 percent. A competitive line for two deeply experienced veterans.
King Green vs Terrance McKinney
Green (35-17-1) is +135 at BetMGM, 43 percent fair. McKinney (18-8-0) is -148 at DraftKings, 59 percent. The market leans to McKinney but keeps Green live.
Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh
Kavanagh (10-1-0) is -218 at DraftKings, 66 percent fair, over the far more experienced Royval (17-9-0) at +185, 34 percent fair. The market is paying for youth over mileage here.
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Sandhagen (18-6-0) is -148 at DraftKings, 57 percent fair. Bautista (17-3-0) is +125 at Caesars, 43 percent. A tight bantamweight line between two elite records.
Paddy Pimblett vs Benoît Saint Denis
Pimblett (23-4-0) at +120 on BetMGM versus Saint Denis (17-3-0) at -135 on DraftKings, fair 45 to 56. Nearly a toss-up with a slight French lean.
Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor
Holloway (27-9-0) is -210 at Caesars, 66 percent fair. McGregor (22-6-0) is +190 at BetMGM, 34 percent. The market makes Holloway a clear two-to-one favorite in the rematch.
Where the Value Is
Value means the price pays more than the fair probability says it should. Almeida at +195 implies about 34 percent, below his 35 percent fair number, so a $100 bet is priced slightly in your favor. Durden at +225 implies roughly 31 percent against a 32 percent fair chance, another thin edge on the dog. On the flip side, Steveson at -2500 is worse than his 92 percent fair number suggests (fair pricing would be closer to -1150), and Yanez at -410 costs more than his 77 percent fair chance justifies. Winning bets and good bets are not the same thing, and those two favorites are likely winners at bad prices.
The Picks
Durden vs Costa: Cody Durden at +225, BetMGM
Reese vs Gandra: Ryan Gandra at -130, DraftKings
Almeida vs Pinas: Cesar Almeida at +195, Caesars
Wang Cong vs Cortez: Wang Cong at -105, Caesars
Kamaka vs Riley: no pick until odds post
Garbrandt vs Yanez: Adrian Yanez to win, but pass at -410, the price is too steep
Steveson vs Ellison: Gable Steveson to win, pass at -2500
Whittaker vs Krylov: Robert Whittaker at -140, Caesars
Green vs McKinney: Terrance McKinney at -148, DraftKings
Royval vs Kavanagh: Lone'er Kavanagh at -218, DraftKings
Sandhagen vs Bautista: Cory Sandhagen at -148, DraftKings
Pimblett vs Saint Denis: Benoît Saint Denis at -135, DraftKings
Holloway vs McGregor: Max Holloway at -210, Caesars
The Prediction
The market has spoken clearly in the main event, and the Desk agrees with it. A 66 percent fair chance for Holloway is a strong statement about a rematch with this much history, and -210 at Caesars is the best available cost of entry. McGregor at +190 pays well if he lands, but the fair numbers say that outcome is a one-in-three proposition. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official documented play, and nothing in betting is certain. But if the numbers hold, Holloway gets his hand raised in Las Vegas.
18-10-1
16-5-0
9-1-0
9-1-0
13-0-0
27-9-0
31-11-0
17-3-0
22-6-0